Vietnam's GDP growth rate in 2013 is more likely to stay at only 5.3%, or 0.2% less than predicted, according to a National Financial Supervision Commission (NFSC) report.
The NFSC released a report after evaluating the economy in the past eight months, saying achieving the initial target of 5.5% this year will be a challenging task.
It said the inflation rate will hover around 5% if there is no fluctuation in the prices of basic commodities.
Thus, the price management will play a decisive role in controlling the consumer price index (CPI) to less than 7% by the year's end. To do this, Vietnam needs an appropriate roadmap for adjusting the prices of essential goods and public services to avoid market shocks.
The country's balance of payments this year will see a surplus of US$1.5-2 billion, a much lower number than in 2012.
The NFSC also forecast that national GDP and CPI in 2014 will reach 5.6-5.8% and 7% respectively and the corresponding figures will be 6-6.2% and 6.5% in 2015.
To reach these targets, the commission said, policies to be introduced in 2013-2014 need to support the aggregate demand (including investment and consumption), enabling businesses to keep expanding production and boost the economy.
Total social investment capital should not be less than 30% of GDP, to balance the supply and demand of goods and stabilise the macro-economy.
Meanwhile, in the medium term, the policies should focus on improving supply and demand, the production capacity and effectiveness of the whole economy.
Crucially, the economic reform process needs to be accelerated within the next 2-3 years to make a breakthrough in the field.
In addition, exports will remain an important driving force behind the country's growth, and foreign direct investment (FDI) attraction will support domestic production and exports.
However, in the long-term the country should have comprehensive measures in place to gradually reform the agriculture, rural areas and support industry and domestic businesses, said the NFSC.
gdp growth rate, national financial supervision, consumer price index, balance of payments, supply and demand, foreign direct investment, gdp growth, growth rate, financial supervision, eight months, this year, inflation rate, price management, price index, essential goods
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